The Heat We're Not Ready For
31st August 2026
Orbit's dynamic thermal modelling shows which homes and residents face the greatest overheating risk, and why climate adaptation now needs to sit inside every retrofit and asset strategy.
At a Glance
Awaab's Law brings excess heat under the same statutory response timeframes as damp and mould from 30 November 2026, giving landlords a fixed compliance deadline rather than a seasonal concern.
Bungalows, and bedrooms facing south or on upper floors, emerge as the highest overheating risk archetypes in research modelling 26 property types across seven locations.
Climate adaptation works best folded into existing retrofit, decarbonisation and asset management strategies, rather than run as a separate investment stream competing for its own budget.
Show notes
Overheating in social housing is moving from a seasonal complaint to a regulated hazard. From 30 November 2026, the second phase of Awaab's Law places excess heat inside the same statutory timeframes that already cover damp and mould, meaning landlords will need to investigate and act on heat risk to a fixed schedule, not only when residents raise it. Research from Orbit's Head of Asset Optimisation, Gemma Brookes, sets out why that shift matters, and what a proactive response looks like across a large, geographically varied housing stock spanning the Midlands, the South, and into Kent.
The research uses dynamic thermal simulation, run through IES software, to model 26 property archetypes across seven locations rather than relying on resident surveys alone. Climate projections from Exeter University's Prometheus weather files extend the modelling out to 2050 and 2080, testing how today's homes will perform as the climate continues to warm. A new hybrid overheating metric combines the CIBSE TM59 and TM52 standards with British Standard adaptation categories, and extends beyond daytime conditions to cover night time overheating and its effect on sleep, an area existing definitionshad left out.
Vulnerable residents are classed by their reduced ability to adapt to fluctuating temperatures: older people, those with health conditions or disabilities, babies and young children, and residents with limited mobility who cannot easily move to cooler rooms or manage blinds and windows. Bungalows emerge as an unexpectedly high risk archetype, since their large roof space and well insulated lofts absorb heat, while ground floor windows cannot be safely left open overnight for purge ventilation without raising security concerns. Bedrooms facing south, and rooms on upper floors, show the highest overheating exceedance at night, raising a design question that goes beyond retrofit: whether future homes should place bedrooms lower down and living space higher up, as is already common in parts of Europe.
Passive measures such as louvres, internal blinds, and different window opening patterns bring lower risk residents into comfortable conditions, but modelling shows they are not sufficient for the highest risk archetypes and the most vulnerable residents. Mechanical solutions, including air to air heat pumps that heat and cool from the same system, are increasingly needed alongside passive measures, and align with fuel switching already under way as part of decarbonisation, for instance moving properties from oil or LPG systems. The wider argument is that climate adaptation should run as a golden thread through retrofit, remediation and insulation strategies already in progress, not compete with them as a separate budget line.
Healthy Homes Hub launched its Cooler Homes programme last month, working with MAP Impact, Good Homes Alliance, Kestrix, Loughborough University and Oxford Brookes. It gives every home in a portfolio a heat risk score, matches at risk properties to practical mitigation options with cost bandings, and produces board ready evidence for the Regulator of Social Housing, ahead of a summer 2027 forecast to be hotter still. Housing providers wanting to find out more, or register interest, can do so via the Healthy Homes Hub website.
Even without a full programme, Gemma's advice stands: existing EPC and SAP data already give providers a starting point, so the sensible first step is identifying the highest risk archetypes, particularly bungalows and homes with bedrooms facing south or on upper floors.
Practical steps for housing providers
Use existing EPC and SAP data to identify which archetypes and locations carry the highest overheating risk, before commissioning new modelling.
Treat bungalows, and homes with bedrooms facing south or on upper floors, as priority checks, given their disproportionate risk profile.
Review night time ventilation options for ground floor and bungalow properties, where open windows raise security concerns.
Raise climate adaptation explicitly in every retrofit, remediation and insulation conversation, rather than treating it as a separate workstream.
Consider mechanical solutions such as air to air heat pumps where passive measures alone will not bring the most vulnerable residents into comfortable conditions.
Build a heat risk register that reflects location, archetype and resident vulnerability together, not any one factor in isolation.
Prepare evidence of overheating risk assessment ahead of the Awaab's Law phase two deadline on 30 November 2026.
Host: Jenny Danson, CEO and Co-Founder, Healthy Homes Hub
Guest: Gemma Brookes, Head of Asset Optimisation, Orbit
