RS2: Data-Driven Finance for Long-Term Project Success

The Starting Point: Treating Energy Assets Like Infrastructure 

Tom's background is in deploying assets into the energy industry at scale, everything from the fuse cut-out outside your home to the meter in your meter box, with an operational workforce behind the scenes to manage them. The reason that model works financially is because of the data processing capability that sits behind it: smart meter data, AMR data, ongoing monitoring. The assets justify infrastructure-grade treatment on a balance sheet because someone is always responsible for them, actively managing them, and generating returns from them over their lifetime. 

The Metis proposition applies the same logic to solar PV and batteries. "Data really does enable everything - scale, money, and a better service." 

The Four Pillars of Data 

Tom described four data streams that together shape how the proposition works: 

1. Smart meter data. Non-negotiable for Metis. They won't offer PV and battery retrofit to a property without a working smart meter. Because they install 40,000 meters a month, they can help ensure residents get one that works. The reason it matters: without smart meter data, you can't monetise batteries through flexibility services, you can't optimise tariffs, and you can't verify actual savings. Half-hourly consumption data is what makes everything else possible. 

2. Property data. EPC data has limitations - Tom acknowledged reliability is questionable -  but it gives a starting point that can be played back to residents digitally or through a tenant liaison officer, and which prompts residents to contribute their own data points as part of the engagement journey. 

3. Tariff data. Understanding what tariff a tenant is currently on, what they're actually paying, and what alternatives in the market would better suit how that household uses energy. This turns out to be more complicated in practice than it sounds (more on that below). 

4. Technology optimisation. Taking all of the above and overlaying the most appropriate low carbon technology on top of that specific home's energy profile. A family that leaves at 7am and returns at 7pm needs a different configuration and a different tariff to a household with someone working from home all day with the washing machine running. The data makes the proposition genuinely tailored rather than generic. 

Using Data to Build Trust Before Any Retrofit Conversation 

One of the most striking points Tom made was about the sequence of engagement. Before any retrofit proposition is made, Metis uses the data to build trust and education around how a home currently uses energy. Across thousands of homes using their app-only solution, they found that this alone reduces energy bills by 9%. That's a meaningful outcome before a single panel is fitted. 

The effect of this is that when the retrofit proposition does come, residents are already engaged, already informed and already experiencing benefit. This is what drives what Tom called "tenant pull" - residents actively wanting the solution rather than being persuaded into it. Across 9,000 random customers, 80% said they wanted a solution once they understood the actual detail of their current energy costs and what was available - even when a subscription fee was involved.

"That is a very, very compelling drive from residents and tenants." 

The Tariff Problem - and Why It Takes Six Months 

One of the most revealing parts of the session was Tom's account of tariff switching. Metis recommends a tariff to each resident that would save them money, typically another £10 to £15 a month, but found that only 60% of customers switched within the first six months, even when the saving was clearly demonstrated. 

The reasons are practical, not irrational. Residents may be in debt to their current supplier. They may have exit fees. They may be on prepayment meters. Switching away from a prepayment meter while in debt means covering that debt upfront, and that barrier is very real. Even people on standard direct debits are typically in debt to their supplier for around seven months of the year due to the way direct debit smoothing works. 

 PV and Battery as the Gateway 

Tom used the phrase "gateway drug", with the caveat that he doesn't love the term, to describe how PV and battery works as the entry point to a broader retrofit programme. It's low disruption (70% of installs don't require anyone to go inside the property at all), it delivers immediate visible benefit on energy bills, and it starts the data collection process that makes every subsequent measure easier to justify and design. 

It also solves a real problem with heat pumps. The spark gap - the price difference between gas and electricity that makes heat pumps more expensive to run without proper insulation - is not yet fully resolved. Installing PV and battery first provides bill resilience while that issue is being addressed, and means residents don't experience bill shock when the heat pump goes in. The technology sequence matters, and data is what lets you get it right. 

Tom was frank that government funding requirements can sometimes force a different technology order - the funding may arrive for one measure before another is ready - but the principle of starting with data and leading with the least intrusive measure remains valid. 

DNO Engagement - a Shifting Relationship 

Tom spent time on what he described as a genuinely changing dynamic with Distribution Network Operators. Currently, DNO engagement is mostly reactive: you submit an application for a heat pump or solar install, you get a yes or no, and if you need a grid upgrade you pay for it. 

What Metis are doing differently is using portfolio-level half-hourly smart meter data to approach DNOs proactively - months in advance - showing the current demand profile of a set of properties and demonstrating exactly how that demand will change after low carbon technology is installed. This is a fundamentally different conversation from a standard application. 

The result, particularly with SSE Southern (SSCN) in their area, is that instead of triggering a £10 million grid infrastructure upgrade, it becomes a £2 million intervention  and the DNO shares the upfront energy efficiency revenue with households in the development. Tom gave a live example in North Vista, Oxfordshire, where this approach is unlocking grid capacity that is allowing A2 Dominion to get new homes through the planning and connection queue that had previously been blocked. 

The figure being brought into the value chain through DNO engagement in that programme is around £700 per home - upfront. As Tom put it, this is "a massive shift" from the current norm where you pay the DNO, to a model where the DNO pays you. He also flagged that under the forthcoming ED3 governance period, DNOs will be required to be far more proactive on flexibility services, which will make this kind of arrangement increasingly common. 

What the Real-World Numbers Show 

Tom shared updated figures from sites that have now been running for a full year: 

• 6 months in (over winter): average saving of £740 

• 9 months in: average saving of £920 

• 12 months in: average saving of £1,171 

These savings come from three sources working together: optimisation against the recommended tariff (98% of customers eventually switch to), export payments (which Metis passes to tenants in their model), and resilience against grid purchases. In winter, residents are sourcing about 30% of their energy from their own system. In summer, that rises to 80% -  meaning in summer, only 20% of energy is being bought from the grid at all. 

As Tom noted, as energy prices continue to rise, with another increase expected in July 2026 and a further one in October 2026, potentially 20% up, these savings figures will only grow. The proposition becomes more valuable over time, not less. 

Why the Data Keeps Needing to Be Actively Managed 

Tom was emphatic that data collection and optimisation is not a one-time activity at install. The energy market is constantly changing, tariffs change, flexibility service values change, DNO requirements change, and the profile of how a household uses energy changes too (children growing up, people working from home, new appliances). The proposition needs to be actively managed for the full 25-year life of the assets. 

Every six months, someone needs to be checking: is the customer on the right tariff? Are flexibility revenues being maximised? Is there a new way to unlock value from the DNO? This ongoing responsibility is exactly what justifies the assets sitting on Metis's balance sheet as infrastructure, rather than being treated as a lease or a loan, and it is what keeps the cost of capital low, because there is always someone on the hook to maintain the value being delivered. 

"You can't just focus on it to drive the proposition. You then have to stick around and do it for the lifetime of the assets. Otherwise, you just keep missing out on opportunities." 

Key Takeaways 

1. Data isn't just a management tool - it's what makes the finance work. Infrastructure-grade capital comes in at lower cost because data-driven active management over 25 years demonstrates that someone is always responsible for the asset and the revenue it generates. This is fundamentally different from traditional retrofit finance models, and it's what keeps the subscription fee affordable for residents. 

2. Starting with education and trust, before any retrofit proposition, is what drives resident pull rather than resistance. An 80% conversion rate among informed residents is achievable. But it requires beginning the data journey months before any install, and being scrupulously accurate in the savings simulations you give people. Overselling kills rollout momentum, neighbourhood by neighbourhood. 

3. DNOs are moving from obstacle to revenue source  but only for organisations that come to them with real data and a portfolio-level story. The shift happening under ED3 means that proactive engagement, backed by half-hourly consumption data, can unlock upfront payments from DNOs rather than requiring expensive grid upgrades. This is a significant and underused part of the retrofit value chain. 

Reflection Questions for Housing Providers 

1. Does your current retrofit programme include a data strategy, not just for monitoring what's been installed, but for building engagement and trust with residents before any works begin? If not, what would it take to put one in place? 

2. Are you actively engaging your Distribution Network Operator with portfolio-level demand data ahead of retrofit programmes, or are you still approaching each project as a standalone connection application? What might a proactive conversation with your DNO unlock? 

3. Over the 25-year life of the assets being installed in your homes, who is responsible for ongoing optimisation - tariff management, flexibility revenues, carbon credits, maintenance? If that responsibility isn't clearly allocated now, how confident are you that the promised savings will actually materialise for residents?